ACLU-NH unveils comprehensive analysis of proposed NH State Senate, State House, and Executive Council maps

CONCORD, N.H. – The ACLU of New Hampshire today unveiled comprehensive analysis of the proposed State Senate, State House, and Executive Council maps for the Granite State, which shows that they are gerrymandered to give the majority party (Republican) unfair advantages for the next decade of state elections. This independent, nonpartisan analysis is the second batch released by the ACLU of New Hampshire in this redistricting cycle.

“In addition to a gerrymandered congressional map, today the data shows that New Hampshire is also facing a gerrymandered, unfair map for its state House of Representatives, Senate, and Executive Council,” said Devon Chaffee, Executive Director of the ACLU of New Hampshire. “We’ll keep saying it: every Granite State voice should be heard equally in our elections, and it should be the voters themselves that choose their politicians. Redistricting and gerrymandering impact the very foundation of our democracy, and we should all ask for these maps to be amended before they progress further.”

The quantitative analysis of the maps, conducted by FLO Analytics and commissioned by the ACLU of New Hampshire, looks specifically at the partisan lean of the relevant districts under the current status quo maps and under the Republican majority’s proposal. Note: the analysis for the State House of Representatives does not yet include the New Hampshire Senate’s recent amendment.

The main takeaways from the analysis include the following for the State House of Representatives:

• In two relatively Republican-leaning counties (Belknap and Merrimack), there is no substantial redistricting proposed. In contrast, significant redistricting is proposed in each of the other eight counties in New Hampshire.
• The proposed map would significantly increase the number of Republican-leaning districts represented in the State House. Currently, in terms of its 2020 Presidential voting patterns, 196 of the state’s 400 seats are Republican-leaning. If the map passes without amendment, 213 of 400 seats will be Republican-leaning. In this sense, the current redistricting round will give the majority party an 8.7% increase in Republican-leaning seats and thus an increase in its ability to control the redistricting of New Hampshire’s U.S. House and state electoral boundaries in the next redistricting round.
• The proposed map would increase the “median seat lean difference.” Percentagewise, it would move the median district 35.4% further from the center of New Hampshire electorate than it currently is.

The main takeaways from the analysis include the following for the State Senate and Executive Council:

• The proposed map would increase the number of Republican-leaning districts represented in the State Senate. Specifically, the proposal would reverse the current political makeup of the senate. In its current form, the New Hampshire Senate has 13 Democratic-leaning districts and 11 Republican-leaning districts, according to the FLO Analytics analysis of partisan lean. Under this proposal, this would change to 13 Republican-leaning districts and 11 Democratic-leaning districts.
• The partisan leanings of the status quo Executive Council districts are largely centrist, with the notable exception of District 2, which skews heavily Democratic.

“Our four-part analysis of New Hampshire’s proposed redistricting plans is one of the most in-depth looks at the potential unfair impacts of this redistricting cycle—which is why it’s so important that Granite Staters advocate for amendments to make these maps fair for everyone,” said Ed Taylor, Director of Community Engagement at the ACLU of New Hampshire. “Our democracy loses when we allow politicians to cheat the system and choose their own voters. We invite all Granite Staters to consider joining our campaign for fair maps and against gerrymandering.”

The analysis of the draft congressional map released by the ACLU of New Hampshire on December 15, 2021 can be found here.

Please see the links below for two separate documents containing the analyses: